In Minnesota?

The news on two initiatives is better. The voter-ID constitutional amendment leads by a 2-1 margin, 62/31, winning every demo with majorities except Democrats and self-described liberals, which have majorities opposed. The latest strategy by opponents is to claim that the requirement will escalate costs, but that’s not going to put a dent in this momentum. Minnesotans are still embarrassed by the 2008 Senate race and want the voting system cleaned up. This one won’t be close.

The other ballot initiative looks more in doubt. Conservatives won a court fight over the constitutional-amendment question description on the ballot that makes it clear that it doesn’t change the state’s definition of a valid marriage. It moves the existing statutory language defining marriage as between one man and one woman into the state Constitution to keep activist judges from changing it unilaterally. Nevertheless, opponents are campaigning against it by saying that voters shouldn’t put limits on marriage, ignoring the fact that the limits are already in place. The initiative leads by seven points, 50/43, and it leads in every gender and age demo — but narrowly among women (48/43) and the 35-49 and 50-64 age demos (47/45 and 48/47 respectively). Interestingly, it leads by a substantial amount with the youngest and oldest voters, double digit margins in both cases.