How enlightening! Thanks Toronto Star. But there are some worthwhile tidbits in the article…
Prices at the pump are going up at the very time that incomes, most particularly those in the U.S., are going down. There, the financial crisis has made a recession probable, if not inevitable. Unemployment is rising and 1 million houses are at risk of being foreclosed.
Russia’s Gazprom estimate of oil prices in a year…
Some estimates of oil price trends are almost surreal. The head of Gazprom, Russia’s energy giant, has forecast that the per barrel price will double again next year to $250.
But here’s a very key point, actually two points…
Attitudinal and behavioural change in North America and Europe won’t be anything like enough, though. Among other items on the far side of the ledger, China is forecasting a 5 to 10 per cent increase in its oil use this year.
One reason is the Olympic Games. But the principal one is that China continues to subsidize the price at the pump in order to keep its inflationary pressures in check and its export drive going.
Somehow I think our trade deficit is helping China to subsidize prices. Also, this is the same problem as “the west” encounters in trying to control world CO2 emissions. With China and India growing so fast and unwilling to make any significant contributions to controlling CO2 (how fast can China build coal plants?) our conservation efforts are easily overwhelmed. Back to energy
And China isn’t the only country subsidizing oil (bold/italics are mine)…
Many other countries are doing the same. Indeed, the world over, half of the population receives subsidized oil, which means in turn that more oil is getting used up.
The long-term truth is straightforward now that China, India, Brazil and a cluster of other nations are on their way to becoming middle-class, consumer societies. This will constitute a global transformation, the consequences of which were forecast a half-dozen years ago by the World Wildlife Federation.
Somehow I don’t think the World Wildlife Federation lead the way in predicting this!
The conclusion is that by 2050 there will be the equivalent of two of todays worlds consuming oil. Food for thought (no pun intended!)
